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What we need is data

BitmeizerBitmeizer Trainee
in Your Ideas For Saving The Game
No matter who ends up with the game, they need to be convinced that it is a financially viable project. That means that we need some hard data to convince them of this fact. While the dedication of fans is obviously an important part, there just aren't enough around to justify $2.5 million banking on them alone. Some relevent information I have thought of:

* Wing Commander/X-Wing/other space sim sales
* Babylon 5 ratings
* An estimate (with some details) of the actual cost of finishing the game.

Anything else? If we can collect enough info to make an argument, it gives us extra ammo if we make a case to a publisher. Unfortunately, I don't know any good places to get such info, so suggestions would be good too...

Bitmeizer

Comments

  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    VERY GOOD IDEA!!!

    If you can get some of these hard numbers from other sites I would be willing to work with you. It seems that this is one of the most realistic approaches I've heard. I'll talk to Drazi Guy and see if we can get the information that we collect put into a professional looking format, and have Drazi post it on the main page somewhere. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • milodmilod Ranger
    Some U.S PC Game sales figures for 1999 from PCData

    [list]
    [*]X-Wing Alliance -------- 143,371
    [*]Homeworld -------------- 95,585
    [*]Descent 3 -------------- 52,294
    [*]Heavy Geer II ---------- 28,598
    [*]Freespace 2 ------------ 26,983
    [*]Flight Unlimited II ---- 20,260
    [*]Flanker 2.0 ------------ 7,285
    [*]MiG Alley -------------- 4,171
    [/list]

    These next numbers are from a magazine article, not from PCData, and represent units sold over the life of the game, not just in 1999

    **Janes F-15 ~122,000 units sold
    **Falcon 4.0 ~209,000 units sold

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    --milo
    [url="http://members.home.net/milod"]http://members.home.net/milod[/url]


    [This message has been edited by milod (edited 03-15-2000).]
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Outstanding!

    I'll see if I can get those raitings for the show. Another thing let's make sure that when we get all the numbers together, that they add up to a plausible buisness proposition. Other than that, full speed ahead! [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/smile.gif[/img]
  • BigglesBiggles <font color=#AAFFAA>The Man Without a Face</font>
    We also need to make sure they know the engine is easily upgradeable for new technologies, and can be used for any game.

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    Never eat anything bigger than your own head.

    "Nonono. Is not Great Machine. Is...Not-So-Great Machine. It make good snow-cone though." - Zathras
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Biggles,

    Do you think you could get direct quotes from the developers and hard data for that? It sounds like a pretty convincing piece of data if you can get it. I'm currently getting info on ratings and emmy awards for the series. This hard data idea should have been done a long time ago. I think once we have a significant amount of information, we should bring it all to this topic and pool it together into one document to be posted on the main page. That way a company who might be interested will see that we want the game bad enough to do the research for them. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • milodmilod Ranger
    [quote]Originally posted by Biggles:
    We also need to make sure they know the engine is easily upgradeable for new technologies, [b]and can be used for any game.[/b][/quote]

    Well, that's not true.

    The B5:ITF engine could be used to make another space sim or a space-based RTS game. But it is not particularly well suited to an adventure game, or an FPS, or an RPG, or a sports game, or a beat-em-up, or...

    By the way, the numbers I posted for game sales probably hurt more than they help. The publisher will probably expect to see about 20 dollars per unit sold in retail. That means that they would need to move about 150,000 copies to break even (assuming a reasonable amount spent on marketing, and only a small overrun in Randy's budget). It is possible that B5:ITF would sell that well world-wide, but it is hardly a slam-dunk as the numbers indicate. There is considerable risk that the title would fall well short of break-even sales. Those aren't the kind of odds that encourage prospective buyers, especially when a game has been cancelled twice already.


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    --milo
    [url="http://members.home.net/milod"]http://members.home.net/milod[/url]
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    First of all, how can Codemasters cancel a game that they never owned?

    Second, let's use those numbers, and work with them to find a bright spot in the aspect of sales. Let's put it this way:

    The game is not entirely a space sim. It is part space sim, part role playing, (although in a minor way), and part strategy. Taking all of those aspects into account, we should consider another sales quote for strategy games, at least, and add the lowest sales price on the strategy list, this may be a more accurate expected sales quote, and I'm quite sure that it will surpass 150,000 copies, which can be expected to sell at retail for no less than $40.00. I'd like to know where you'd be able to find a game like this at $20.00 even after a year has passed.

    Taking this into account with the fact that the way things were shaping up, it would be a revolutionary new game, which may be expected to have higher sales than either sim or strategy games alone. I know that right now this part of my post is theoretical, so let's find a way to make my point more substantial.

    Logic,
    gotta love it! [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    BTW:

    I believe what Biggles was referring to, was the fact that the game engine's graphic quality is extremely scalable. In other words the engine can quickly and easily be altered to allow the different game models to have a higher polygon count. As well as the possibility to produce at least one other expansion using this engine, which would be sold at a minimum of $20.00. I would expect any fairly intelligent publishing group to take full advantage of such a dynamic engine. Meaning alot more than just one extension. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • KinkyJKinkyJ Earthforce Officer
    Indigo- milod didn't say the game would retail at $20, he said [quote]The publisher will probably expect to see about 20 dollars per unit sold in retail[/quote]

    After all, the retailer and taxes all take their cut, it doesn't all go to the publisher...

    ------------------
    Adam Thomas
    -Support the Campaign for Unmetered Telecommunications
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  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Okay well that is still not a problem if you take into account the rest of what I said.

    Anyone else want to try to undermine our efforts? [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/tongue.gif[/img]
  • Falcon1Falcon1 Elite Ranger
    I think the licensing of the game engine could generate alot of revenue to pay for the game. It would be a massive risk therefore to borrow money to finish the game, on the back of expected sales of the engine license to other firms.

    A massive publicity campaign would have to be launched though, both in the US and in the UK. We musted forget the UK marget as there are a lot of gamers in this country, and B5 is quite popular. Also Falcon 4 got a lot of pub, hence it sold very well. But I was expecting Freespace 2 to have sold more units.....

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    'The future is all around us' G'kar

    Visit my B5 site at: [url="http://babylon5.acmecity.com/alliance/110"]http://babylon5.acmecity.com/alliance/110[/url]
  • RandyRandy Master Storyteller
    The philosophy behind the game engine design is flexibility to the extent that the engine could be used for a variety of types of games. Integral to the game engine is a method for conveying a non-linear, non-branching story where the activities of NPC’s, as well as the activities of the player, impact on the specific experience of any one play-through. In other words, while the most macro view of the plot is essentially branched, the micro view –or detailed level- is always going to be different, with unexpected twists and turns. This is because the NPC’s have their own agendas and methods for achieving their goals. Moreover, their goals can change as a result of a changing environment, and due to player activities. For this reason the engine, as designed, could be great for an adventure or RPG. If used for such a game, it would be a blend of simulation and adventure and/or RPG features. That said, it is also true that I don’t mean to imply that any of this should be considered simple. It is true that the theory behind the design could be adapted to various types of games, but the engine as it exists is designed for a space/combat simulator which combines combat, strategy, and story components in a non-linear way.
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    So it isn't a cake walk, but it is still a very flexible engine with many possibilities. Sounds like it has what would be considered highly-valued potential.

    Randy, would you allow us to use your post as a quote? [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • RandyRandy Master Storyteller
    Indigo: You can direct people to my statement here, but I'd rather not have it propagated throughout the Net. I don't want it to be seen out of context. This is a very general statement that can sound like a lot of hot air, unless someone who is interested had access to the design documents and could look at the code for themselves. Otherwise, I'm afraid that a statement like this is nearly useless. I say these things here because I'm among friends and at least the Firstones at Firstones know that I'm not just full of hot air.

    [This message has been edited by Randy (edited 03-19-2000).]
  • MTMT Ranger
    Those sales figures are pitiful. I expected much more, especially from FS2 (probably didn't do to well because of its lack of advertizing).

    Put this game on a console first, and then port it to the PC later. That's the way to go.

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    "Greater than the death of flesh is the death of hope... The death of dreams. Against this peril we can never surrender." -G'Kar, Z'ha'Dum

    "I WILL extol thee, my God, O king; and I will bless thy name for ever and ever."
    Psalms 145:1
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Randy, I understand your concern and therefore will not be using it as a quote of the engine's potential. My intention was not to spread it to every other site that would listen, but to use it at Firstones itself on the main page somewhere. Because you do not have acces to the code, I can understand why the quote becomes a question of credability. A question that you do not have to worry about here at the forums, but I can see how it would put you into an uncomfortable situation elswhere. To sum it up, you don't have to worry, we will find other ways. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]

    As for your idea MT, I think it might be a good step for publicity purposes, but I've never played a space combat sim on a console, would it work as well?

    Progress report: Still having trouble finding ratings info for the series, but I think I've found a source that has access to the information. I'll let you know what I get. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • Da10n1Da10n1 Earthforce Officer
    EXACTLY, u have never seen a space sim on a console, because they're arnt many.

    but how much would it cost to redesign the game for a console, AND with all those ploygons flying around, could a console handle it ????
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Well I know that the X-box could. Have you read the projected specs on the completed ones, they're loaded! [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/wink.gif[/img]
  • Unknown
    Space Sims don't work too well on consoles... the only one I've ever played was on Playstation... don't remember the name, but the physics were like the ship was flying through water, or maybe syrup.. [img]http://www.firstones.com/forums/smile.gif[/img]

    Also, how will you get control of 6 directional axis on a gamepad?? There would have to be a piece of hardware designed for controlling this ONE game, which is an expense no company would risk unless it planned to do a LOT more titles that also use it....

    just my 2/100 ths of a dollar...

    Happy Hunting
    MattD
  • IndigoIndigo Ranger
    Well, back to the subject of getting hard data to convince another company to pick up the game. I believe that I will have the ratings info in a few days. If anyone else can find other useful information please feel free to take part. We need the following:
    A list of projected sales created using the combination of sales figures for both space sims and rpg/strategy games and,

    The estimated cost of finishing the game(in detail).
    Please give us a hand
    Anyone?
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